Saturday, 13 January 2018

EV Intentionality

We have a cute Renault Zoe EV, called Evie as it happens, and when I get a chance at traffic lights I slip it into non-ECO mode so I can leave all the hotshot BMWs / Audis / Mercedes and Jaguars in the dust as I zoom away (within the speed limit of course :-) ) !

EV Intentionality is about driving and thinking EV in such a way as to convey the genuine benefits of the technology. They're the rapidly approaching future (fuel cell cars aren't) and we're in competition with the Fossil Fuel industry who are orders of magnitude bigger than us (until their stranded assets catch up with them ;-) ).

Friends frequently ask me if it's better to (a) buy an EV now, (b) buy a hybrid or (c) drive their current car into the ground. (c) Seems like common sense, but actually it's worse for the environment and your pocket. This is why (assumes average ICE car driving 12703Km/year at 120g/Km):
The way to look at it is to add up your emissions over the long-term. Put simply, buying an EV involves a one-time emissions hit (the production of the car, including the extraction of its raw materials) and after that, it can be emissions-free. This assumes you'll charge it on renewable energy, because we do.

Therefore every fossil fuel mile you add now, adds to your final emissions. By 2040, the EV bought in 2018 still has the same emissions, but the one bought in 2022, just 4 years later resulted in another 60% emissions and the one kept going until 2040 resulted in nearly 4x the emissions - before the EV was eventually bought).

Let's consider what happens if you buy a Hybrid (at 100g/Km) or a Plug-in Hybrid (PHEV) (at 45g/Km) or an EV vs driving the same ICE car for as long as possible:

Basically, the EV results in lower total emissions than continuing with your ICE by 2024 (in 6 years), the PHEV manages it by 2027 (in 9 years), and the Hybrid by 2040 (22 years), in other words, a long time after its life expectancy. Looking at the life expectancy (on average by 2032, given our start date); by then, the PHEV's total emissions are 75% more than the EV, but the Hybrid car has more total emissions than the ICE. In other words - you're very unlikely recoup the manufacturing emissions by buying a new Hybrid car compared with driving an existing ICE into the ground, though of course it'll be less emissions than buying a new ICE.

From an intentional viewpoint though we want to promote the transformation of transport. Consider:

  • Every fossil fuel mile you drive now, is a donation to the fossil fuel industry. They're not a charity. The first question to ask is "how much of my money do I want to give them?" If it's nothing (which is the right answer), then your basic decisions are made for you.
  • EVs will come down in price over time and improve faster over time. But the rate of this depends upon how quickly we switch. If we takes decades to go clean the rate of improvement will be much slower. It's what's called a market signal, which is a vote. You put your money in the market you have faith in and the market responds accordingly.
  • EV production will get cleaner over time as industrial practices decarbonise, but this will happen much slower than we can switch to EVs. By switching to EVs and running them on clean energy, we send another market signal, that we want a carbon-free lifestyle sooner. This is another market signal.
And given there seems to be at least one car advert on every commercial break on TV, we're going to have to be 100% intentional for the foreseeable future :-) !

[Edit: Graphs updated to include manufacturing footprints for EVs and ICE cars based on This Guardian Article. The article provides only EV and ICE footprints; I've estimated a Hybrid and PHEV manufacturing footprints based on typical CO2 emissions for the technologies on the basis that the battery technology and/or drivetrain is what contributes to the higher manufacturing emissions in proportion to the battery technology provided. In addition, I've assumed that manufacturing footprints will fall linearly until they fully decarbonise by 2070. These are provisional calculations until I get better information. Similarly, the study used to estimate EV manufacturing at 8.8Tonnes may assume a Tesla Model S as the standard EV, and that will not be representative across the globe - and it might not even be true for the Tesla Model S.]