Now we've left the EU, I thought I'd write a bit of a blog post on what I think should be the priorities for being able to re-join the EU at some point in the future. I want to start with an assessment of how we got here, as well as a step-by-step manifesto for how we get back. This will take a long time, perhaps a decade or two (it took nearly five decades for Euroskeptics to engineer our exit) so we need to plan strategically for that kind of distance.
Why We Are Here
"The 1929 Crash was a culmination of 5 years of massive stock market growth which was ultimately boosted by heavy speculative investment. The market initially recovered over the next several months of 1930, but this was not enough to prevent the subsequent Great Depression and corresponding global recessions in Britain and more importantly in Germany (where the economic (and social) instability lead directly to the the rise in power of extreme political parties and subsequently the Nazi dictatorship and World War II)."
"So, when we come to look at the Crunch we actually see the hallmarks of previous crashes all over again. We see deregulated markets leading to a financial boom and subsequent serious bust."
"What we can predict is that this is only the start of the problem"
The Five Steps Of Failure
- A global crash which lead nations to..
- Implement austerity in order to 'manage' their finances. This is a classic right-wing economic approach which treats national economies like domestic economies. It cannot be emphasised enough that it doesn't work. I have a blog entry from 2015 which explains why they are not the same. Nevertheless, the EU imposed austerity (or SAPs) from 2009 and the UK imposed it on itself from 2010. In reality austerity causes..
- People to react by becoming more politically extreme, in particular by shifting towards right-wing Nationalism. I think the reasons for this are pretty simple. When people are faced with austerity, they spend far more of their time looking after their immediate needs and so their cognitive horizons shrink. In essence austerity prevents people from looking at the wider problems and so people are lead to more populist, political thinking: simple immediate solutions rather than complex wider solutions. But right-wing nationalism has the edge, because the shrinking of horizons forces a more nationalistic viewpoint. What happens outside of those horizons is threatening. This leads to..
- The destabilisation of Europe. In Austerity Europe of the 1920s (post Versailles) and 1930s (post Wall Street Crash), both phases lead to destabilisation from Fascist governments. Italy broke away in the 1920s under Mussolini and Spain entered a (partly Nazi supported) civil war in the early 1930s. And of course Germany went Nazi in the very early 1930s. But the same patterns of political destabilisation appeared across Europe and the US; ranging from Oswald Moseley's Black Shirts to the America First movement in the US. Europe was destabilised.
- Ultimately, because Nationalist governments have a relatively local focus, they are lead into conflict with either themselves or other countries. So, the whole process ended with War.
1. A Common Understanding Of The Root Problem
2. A Common Narrative
3. Addressing Media Responsibility and Accountability
4. Guerrilla Ops (Picking Battles We Can Win)
- We've gotten used to talking in terms of metres over the past year in a way we never did before.
- Educational establishments in the UK will back us up: they won't be bothered, particularly in sciences, to backtrack on 50 years of progress.
- Industry will back us, because Imperial units have a direct financial cost.
- The NHS could back us, by switching to e.g. only giving out metric weights for children.