New Record Low Arctic SIE Maximum Reached

The Arctic Sea Ice is dying. We've known this since the mid-1990s from satellite measurements available since the end of the 1970s and there is some pre-satellite evidence to show that it has been in decline since the 1960s via the early environmentalist Rachel Carson.

However, since the mid-2000s it's been accelerating. Normally the big news has been with the Sea Ice Extent minimum reached in September, but recently the decline in the Sea Ice Extent maximum in March is becoming increasingly concerning.

This year we have reached a new record low Arctic SIE Maximum, about 40,000Km2 lower than the previous maximum reached in 2015. This is after 6 months in 2016 where the Arctic SIE was at record low levels and even this year it has spent about 30% of the time in record low territory over and above (or should it be under and below) the record lows over that period in 2016.

The record itself was reached near the beginning of March (March 06), but because the extent can vary quite significantly up and down at the maximum point, it's not safe to call the maximum until it can be reasonably known that it's peak will be exceeded.

That point has been reached, the current extent reached 13.61mKm2 as of March 16 and there is no year from the year 2000 to 2016 where SIE has risen by more than the 270,000Km2 that would be required for 2017 to break its current peak.

Here's the graphic.

Arctic Attacks

Arctic Sea Ice has reached a new record low maximum. The Guardian covers it quite nicely in this article.

Arctic sea ice extent hits record low for winter maximum

In writing a reply to a comment for the article I ended up listing a number of major reasons why the Arctic is under attack. It turns out there's an awful lot of mechanisms and feedbacks that are making Arctic Sea Ice increasingly vulnerable. Off the top of my head I could think of these:

1. Most of the ice is now easily melted first-year ice, which even when it melts is less likely to refreeze, because it doesn't change salinity of the top layer of water much.

2. The Arctic sea surface temperatures are rising, and will be hit harder again, now we are in an El Nino phase; so melting from below is becoming more of an issue. [This is the primary cause of this years record low Arctic Maximum]

3. The increased amount of open water in the Arctic ocean means that Arctic sea ice is being affected more by storms. In the past the ice itself dampened waves; the effects of currents and could distribute the force of storms across the ice pack. Now there are open waves and the structural integrity can't withstand the currents nor storms. One the effects of this is 'flash melting' where stunning amounts of sea ice can suddenly melt by being submerged during a storm (this was a contributory factor to the summer record in 2012).

4. The increased amount of energy in the atmosphere around the Arctic ocean means that storms are becoming more common and stronger.

5. The increased humidity above the arctic has numerous effects. (a) Water vapour is a greenhouse gas and therefore it acts as a positive feedback on melt. (b) Increased cloud cover reduces direct levels of radiation acting as a negative feedback (though it's understood less than (a)). (c) Regular air temperatures above 0ºC means that rain is increasingly likely and rain is a much more effective thermal conductor than air (because water has a much higher specific heat capacity).

6. Arctic melting is starting to reach the coasts of the Greenland and Canadian Archipelago. This means that the multi-year ice is no longer held fast to the land and is therefore more easily transported.

7. Increased outflow and calving from Arctic glaciers, particularly in Greenland adds to the destabilisation of land-fast Arctic sea ice.

8. The opening of the North East Passage and in particular open water from the North Sea to the Bering Strait (separating Alaska and Russia) means that for some of the year actual ocean currents can flow all the way across the Arctic. This, again, increases transport.

9. The increased rate of arctic temperature rises compared with more southerly latitudes means that the northern Jetstream is breaking down (this is different to the Gulf stream of course). The effect is to make  the Jetstream more wavy which allows warmer air to be transported to the Arctic (often raising temperatures by >20ºC) as well as transporting cooler air further south causing major climatic problems in Canada and North America (the Polar Vortex).

So, in short - there's whole set of depressing indicators and feedbacks as the Arctic Sea Ice melts, which is why as a whole it's accelerating.

SIA Later!

Or rather we won't as in a few years it'll all be gone!

This is a little blog about current Arctic Sea Ice Area as we near the 2012 record-breaking summer minimum.

Take a look at the image:

It's a section of the Arctic SIA as of yesterday.

We can see that the whole of the top-right hand edge, is the Northern Sea Route. You can see it's open-water and there's a lot of it. It first opened in 2009, but right now it's so wide you could pretty much sail the UK straight through; and within 3 years!

The opening of the Northern Sea Route means that ocean currents can sweep more easily round the eastern edge of the North Pole; bringing warmer waters from the Gulf Stream (not to be confused with the Jet Stream); and thus accelerating the collapse of the Arctic Sea Ice. We can see the effect quite clearly; the eastern edge continues to melt significantly, just days away from the supposed end of the melting season.

By contrast the Western edge of the Arctic Sea Ice is pinned by an extensive set of islands as well as the all-important Greenland land mass. This is why the Sea Ice is clinging to that edge, the frozen land keeps it cooler and protects it from ocean currents.

The last thing to note is the colour scheme. Red means '60%' ice, pink means '80%' ice; purple is near 100%. This means that the white dot in the middle, which is the North Pole itself, is only 80% Sea Ice at best and has a large amount of 60% (i.e. rotten) Sea Ice relatively close by. Given that the Eastern edge of the ice is about half-way to the North Pole, I'd guess it'll be gone within 3 years.

SIA Later, in a week or so for my post on the Arctic minimum!

Arctic Sea Ice Extent

I’ve finally gotten around to creating a blog, so I need to start it off somehow with a post, hopefully not a completely purile one. Since I obsess a bit about global warming and climate change I’ll start with a thrilling post about the Arctic sea ice extent.

If you didn’t know, the Arctic sea ice extent has already broken the previous record of 5.32M Km2 set in 2005 by 1.08M Km2 - it’s now 4.24M Km2 and could easily fall for another 2 or 3 weeks (although it may stop any day now). It’s not just that it’s smaller than ever, but that it’s breaking records of all kinds:

• It’s the largest single fall recorded for a single year.
• Highest temperatures Recorded.
• It’s the first time the Northwest Passage has opened.
• It’s melted perennial sea ice the size of California (Ice that’s been around every day of every year since at least 1979).
• Ocean warming itself is now contributing to ice melt.

The thing for me though is that most people are still predicting the Arctic ice caps will be free of ice in the summer by 2030, but simply looking at their graph makes it look like (at the current rate over 2005-2007) the ice caps will be free of ice by the summer of 2015. The calculation’s simple: 4.24M Km2 / 0.55M Km2/Yr => 8 years.

But how bogus is my guess? Well, I’m not a climate scientist, so probably very! But it’s worth noting that my estimate is based on a current rate of decline when it’s fairly obvious that the rate of decline is accelerating. Secondly, not only is the rate increasing, but it’s becoming more consistent. Year to year increases since 2001 haven’t exceeded 0.45M Km2 (average 0.26M Km2), which prior to 2001 averaged 0.68M Km2. Thirdly, there's a good reason to believe ice melt will increase and be more consistent - namely that the arctic ocean is playing a greater rôle, absorbing more summer heat, because the cap is shrinking. And the ocean will act as a massive heat exchange, preventing the cap from fully recovering in the winter, and by regulating heat release during the yar.

Scary isn’t it?